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Home/Lead generation/Churn prediction
Two signals · ranked by risk

Know which customers might leave before they do

Every customer who uninstalls your technology leaves a pattern behind. LeadsQuantum reads two of them from outside your product: an unusual vertical, and a stack your tool does not fit. Work the riskiest accounts first.

0Risk signals
0Categories
0Stack data points
0Technologies
Churn risk · your customersillustrative
Book retailerBooks & Literaturelow vertical fithigh
B2B parts supplierBusiness & Industrialodd stackhigh
Craft supplies shopHobbiesmixedmedium
Apparel labelStyle & Fashionstrong fitlow
Skincare brandBeautystrong fitlow
work from the top downcategory ratios →
Outside-in churn signals

Your product data shows how customers use you. Ours shows whether they fit.

Usage dashboards tell you when engagement drops, often too late. Fit signals tell you which customers were always at higher risk, so you can act early.

Inside-out signals

  • Logins, usage and feature adoption
  • Support tickets and complaints
  • Show trouble once it has started
  • Need your own product analytics

Outside-in fit signals

  • How typical the customer's vertical is for your tool
  • How well your tool fits their other technologies
  • Visible from day one of the relationship
  • Need only the customer's domain
Best used together

Combine fit signals with your own usage data. A low-fit customer whose usage also drops is the first call of the week.

Signal 1: vertical fit

Customers in unusual verticals are less anchored

Every one of 5 million domains carries an IAB category. For any technology we know which categories use it far above or far below their share of all sites.

Customers in high-ratio categories are using your type of tool where it is normal. Customers in low-ratio categories are the exceptions, and exceptions churn more easily.

  • Example: sites in Style & Beauty are about 8 times more likely to use Shopify than the baseline.
  • Example: Books & Literature sits below the baseline for the same platform.
  • Depth: the same analysis runs on all 440 Tier 2 categories.

Ratio to baseline, one technology

Style & Beauty
~8x
Shopping
>1
Baseline
1.0
Books + Literature
<1
Lower ratio, higher churn risk
Signal 2: stack fit

Some tools rarely sit together. That is a warning.

The recommender learned from more than 100 million technology usage data points which tools tend to appear together and which rarely do.

When your technology is an unusual companion for the rest of a customer's stack, the setup is less stable. Those customers are more likely to switch.

  • Input: your technology and each customer's stack.
  • Output: your customers ranked by how likely they are to churn.
  • Scale: applied across millions of websites and thousands of tools.

Fit versus misfit

FitsYour tool sits with tools it usually pairs with
UnusualYour tool sits in a stack where it rarely appears
RiskUnusual stacks rank higher on the churn list
Ordered by likelihood, ready to work
Combining the signals

Four risk groups from two signals

Put every customer into one box. Each box gets a different treatment from customer success, so effort goes where it changes outcomes.

Vertical fitStack fitRisk groupTreatment
LowLowHighest riskPersonal check-in this month, tailored onboarding review
LowHighVertical riskShow vertical-specific use cases and examples
HighLowStack riskHelp with integrations and setup alongside their tools
HighHighCore customersLight touch, expansion offers, ask for referrals
Why customers leave

Common churn reasons and the fit signal behind them

Customers rarely say "we did not fit". They say something more specific. Many of those reasons trace back to vertical or stack fit.

What the customer saysOften really meansFit signal that warned you
"It does not do what we need."Built for a different kind of businessVertical fit
"It does not work with our other tools."Integration gap with their stackStack fit
"Too expensive for what we use."Only a small part of the product is relevantVertical fit
"We found something simpler."A tool that fits their stack betterStack fit
"Our agency recommended another tool."Their stack follows the agency's standardStack fit
"We changed platforms."Migration to a stack your tool does not suitStack fit
"Nobody on the team uses it."The category is not normal in their verticalVertical fit
"We are closing or pausing."Business reasons outside your controlNeither, but rare in high-fit groups
Playbook

A churn prevention routine in six steps

Run it quarterly for your whole base, monthly for your largest accounts. The first run takes an afternoon; later runs take an hour.

List customer domains

Export the websites of your current customers from your CRM or billing system.

Score vertical fit

Match each domain's category against your technology's ratio chart, Tier 2 where possible.

Score stack fit

Use the churn ranking from the recommender for your technology to score each customer.

Group

Sort customers into the four risk groups described above.

Assign owners

Every highest-risk account gets a named person and a date for first contact.

Review results

Next quarter, compare churn by group and adjust the treatments that did not work.

Save plays

Eight plays for at-risk customers

The goal is not a discount. It is making your product fit better in their world, so staying becomes the obvious choice.

01

Vertical playbook

Send examples from customers in their exact category, so the product feels made for them.

02

Integration help

Connect your tool to the stack they actually run, not the one you assumed.

03

Setup review

A short call to check configuration and find two or three quick wins.

04

Value report

Show what your tool did for them last quarter in numbers they care about.

05

Right-size the plan

A cheaper plan beats a cancellation, and keeps the door open to upgrade later.

06

Feature unlock

Point out features that matter in their vertical and that they have not tried.

07

Executive touch

For large accounts, a personal note from leadership shows they matter.

08

Feedback loop

Ask what would make you indispensable, log it, and tell them when you ship it.

Weekly rhythm

How a customer success team uses risk groups each week

Risk scores only help if they change what people do on Monday morning. This simple weekly plan makes sure they do.

DayFocusWho
MondayReview highest-risk accounts with any drop in usageTeam lead
TuesdayPersonal check-ins with three to five high-risk accountsAccount owners
WednesdaySend vertical playbooks to the vertical-risk groupCS marketing
ThursdayIntegration help sessions for the stack-risk groupSolutions or support
FridayLog saves, losses and reasons; update the product feedback listEveryone
Who uses churn signals

Six teams, one shared risk view

Churn is everyone's problem. Fit signals give every team the same picture to work from.

Customer success

Decide which accounts get attention first, every single week.

  • Ranked risk list
  • Treatment by group

Product

See which verticals and stacks you serve badly, and fix the biggest gap.

  • Feature priorities
  • Integration roadmap

Sales

Stop signing customers who will not stay past the first renewal.

  • Fit checks on deals
  • Better-fit prospect lists

Marketing

Focus spend on verticals where customers stick and refer others.

  • High-ratio categories
  • Vertical content

Finance

Forecast revenue with risk built in rather than added at the end.

  • Risk-weighted renewals
  • Group-level churn rates

Leadership

See whether growth is coming from customers who fit or from ones who will leave.

  • Share of base in high-fit groups
  • Trend each quarter
Questions from CS leaders

Six doubts, answered

Customer success leaders have seen many health scores. These are the questions they ask before trusting another one.

"We already have a health score."

Keep it. Fit signals add a view from outside your product that usage-based scores cannot see.

"Our churn is mostly pricing."

Price complaints often come from customers who use only a small part of the product. Vertical fit often explains why.

"We cannot call everyone."

You do not need to. The highest-risk group is usually small enough to cover personally.

"How do we know it works?"

Compare churn by group next quarter. If the high-risk group churns more, the signal is earning its place.

"Our customers are not websites."

Fit signals need a website per customer. Most businesses that buy software tools have one.

"What about brand-new customers?"

That is where fit signals shine. They work from day one, before any usage data exists.

For product teams

Churn signals are a roadmap in disguise

Patterns in who churns tell you what to build next, and which customers your product is really for.

Weak verticals

If low-ratio verticals churn most, either build features for them or stop selling to them. Both are better than the status quo.

Missing integrations

If misfit stacks share a tool you do not integrate with, that integration is a priority for the next quarter.

Better targeting

Feed the same signals into sales, so new customers start with a good fit and stay longer.

Prevent churn at the source

Sell to customers who will stay

The cheapest churn to prevent is the customer you never signed. Use the same fit signals when you build prospect lists.

  • Target high-ratio verticals with the market analytics.
  • Rank by stack fit with the AI recommender.
  • Flag low-fit deals for extra onboarding before they close.

One loop, two teams

SalesProspects ranked by vertical and stack fit
OnboardingExtra help for lower-fit wins
SuccessQuarterly risk review
Fewer bad-fit customers, less churn
One account, ten minutes

An early-warning checklist for a single account

Before a renewal call or a quarterly review, open the customer's record and run through these six checks.

01

Category ratio

Where does their Tier 2 category sit on your technology's ratio chart, above or below 1.0?

02

Churn rank

How high do they appear in the churn list for your technology this quarter?

03

Rival on site

Is a competing tool running next to yours? That often means a trial in progress.

04

Stack changes

Has their platform or a core tool changed since they signed with you?

05

Growth

Is their store growing or stalling? Stalling stores cut software costs first.

06

Your usage data

Combine all of the above with logins and feature use from your own product for the full picture.

Measuring

How to know the program works

Compare churn across risk groups before and after you start the save plays. Four numbers are enough to judge the program after one or two quarters.

Churnby risk group
Savesaccounts kept after a play
Downgradesvs cancellations
New-customer fitshare in high-fit groups
Terms

Churn vocabulary used on this page

Shared definitions keep customer success, sales and product teams reading risk lists the same way.

TermMeaning
ChurnA customer removing or cancelling your technology.
Vertical fitHow common your type of technology is in the customer's IAB category, compared with all sites.
Stack fitHow naturally your technology sits next to the other tools on the customer's site.
Category ratioUsage share in a category divided by that category's share of all domains.
Churn rankingYour technology's users ordered by likelihood of churn, based on stack fit.
Risk groupOne of four boxes formed by combining vertical fit and stack fit.
Save playA planned action to keep an at-risk customer.
FAQ

Churn prediction questions

01How does LeadsQuantum predict churn?

With two outside-in signals: how typical a customer's vertical is for your type of technology, and how well your technology fits the rest of the customer's stack. Both come from data on millions of websites.

02Do you need access to my product data?

No. Fit signals need only the customer's website. You can combine them with your own usage data internally, without sharing that data with us.

03Which plan includes churn prevention?

Both plans, Advanced and Enterprise. It sits alongside the AI recommender and technology analytics, which it draws on.

04What does the output look like?

For a given technology, a list of websites ordered by how likely they are to churn from it, plus category ratio charts and tables you can export to Excel.

05Is a high-risk customer certain to leave?

No. It means the customer is more likely to leave than others. Use it to decide where to spend customer success time first, then let conversations confirm or clear the risk.

06How many categories are used?

Tier 1 IAB categories for a broad view and all 440 Tier 2 categories for precision. Tier 2 usually separates risk far better.

07Does this work if my product is small?

If your technology is tracked, yes. If not, the category ratios of the leading product in your category are a good proxy to start with.

08Can I run it on my whole customer list?

Yes. Match your customer domains against the churn ranking and category ratios. For bulk help, send up to 500 domains to [email protected].

09How often should I re-score customers?

Quarterly for the full base, monthly for your largest accounts, and immediately after any big change in a customer's stack.

10What should I do with low-fit verticals long term?

Either invest in features and content for them, or focus new sales elsewhere. Both are valid; drifting in between is costly.

11Can fit signals predict churn for brand-new customers?

Yes. They are available from the first day, because they depend on the customer's vertical and stack, not on how long they have used your product.

12What if a customer changes their stack?

Re-score them. A stack change, such as a new platform, can move a customer from low risk to high risk overnight, so watch for it.

13Should I stop selling to low-fit verticals?

Not necessarily. Some low-fit verticals are untapped markets. Decide deliberately, and invest in onboarding if you keep selling there.

14Can I see which tools my churned customers moved to?

Look up a former customer's current stack. The tool that replaced yours tells you who you are losing to.

15Does this replace exit surveys?

No. Exit surveys explain individual decisions. Fit signals show patterns early enough to prevent them. Use both.

16How big is the highest-risk group usually?

It depends on how well your sales targeting matched your product so far. In most bases it is a minority of accounts, small enough for personal attention.

17Can agencies use churn signals for their clients?

Yes. Agencies that resell or implement software use the same signals to protect the accounts they manage and to advise vendors.

18What is the first thing to do after a risk review?

Assign a named owner and a date to every highest-risk account. Lists without owners do not prevent churn.

Keep the customers you worked so hard to win

Churn signals, the AI recommender and technology analytics, together on Advanced from $999 per year.